TOME 10 PART 156; HOW TO THINK WHEN FACING A FATALISTIC PROBABILITY
DAGARA RIDDLE;
"What would you do if you came face to face with the Weaver Of Calamity and he presented you with two apples and gave you a hint; one of these apples is poisoned but you have no choice but to eat at least one of them?"
Here are some clues to help you navigate this Wormhole…
You must keep in mind that the Weaver Of Calamity does not exactly have a reputation for telling the Truth.
THE MOST COMMON CONCLUSION;
There is a 50-50% chance that I will either eat a poisoned apple or an ordinary one so let me take my chances.
SOME ASSUMPTIONS TO CONSIDER
The Weaver Of Calamity may be lying so the scale may have been rigged for a 100% fatality rate meaning both apples are likely poisoned. The Weaver Of Calamity may not be lying so we can at least guarantee that one of the apples is definitely poisoned. This becomes your real number/constant. Since we cannot tell whether the Weaver Of Calamity is telling the Truth or not, we have to assume that at least one apple is definitely poisoned. We cannot however tell the nature of the second apple so it is either poisoned, ordinary or an antidote so the second apple becomes an imaginary range of numbers/probabilities. At this point here are a possible range of possibilities and their possible outcomes; Choose 1 apple; at least 50% chance of a fatality. In the worst case scenario, the Weaver Of Calamity has rigged the scale and the fatality rate is 100%. Choose 2 apples Poisoned Apple(Real)+Poisoned Apple(Imaginary)=100%fatality. Poisoned Apple(Real)+Ordinary Apple(Imaginary)=100%fatality. Poisoned Apple(Real)+Antidote Apple(Imaginary)=100%Health.
Hence there is a 1/3 chance you will survive if you pick 2 apples and a ½ chance of survival if you pick 1 apple.
DAGARA SHIKASHI(A BIG DAGARA PROVERBIAL HOWEVER);
There is a hidden possibility the Weaver Of Calamity did not explicitly mention, in other words, an implicit possibility. That is; the Weaver Of Calamity did not inform you of the consequences of refusing to choose an apple.
POSSIBILITIES;
Since you are aware of this implicit possibility and are also aware that by neglecting to mention it, the Weaver Of Calamity definitely wants you to focus on the explicit possibilities, it is highly likely that the scale has been rigged. Hence the possibility of picking a poisoned apple is at least higher than 50% implying that both apples are most likely poisoned. The real question then becomes, what happens if you refuse to pick an apple?
CONCLUSION;
If you refuse to pick an apple, you step into a realm of imaginary possibilities where the Weaver Of Calamity either attacks you or lets you go free since the consequence of refusing to pick an apple was not explicitly mentioned. In other words, this is an open statement where the only real determinants to the outcome are your wits and your strength since;
The Weaver Of Calamity will either attack you or let you go free. You cannot control the Weaver Of Calamity's actions so the only guaranteed way you can go free is to overcome the Weaver Of Calamity since you cannot tell whether you will be attacked or not if you refuse to pick an apple. In other words, in this scenario, all other probabilities except your wit and strength are imaginary.